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Trade of the Week Market Watch

Beyond the Money

Commentary from Chuck Miao



 

What to watch in the market this week (7/7/2014)

The nonfarm payrolls number announced by U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday (7/3) was 288,000 jobs created in June and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. U.S. stock market seemed to be encouraged by these numbers. Both Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) made record highs on July 3rd, not a bad way to celebrate the July 4th Independence Day. S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached another historical high at 1985.59 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also reached a record high of 17074.65 on Thursday (7/3).

Technically, I think the rally over the last several days in U.S. stock market might have put the market in a somewhat overbought condition in the near term. Moreover, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) reached a low of the past 12 month at 10.28 on Thursday (7/3). Therefore I won’t be surprised to see a potential short term pullback of 20 to 30 points for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the near term. On Tuesday (7/8), Alcoa (AA) will start the second quarter earnings report season. If there are some earnings disappointments in early part of this report season, it may probably give some investors excuses to sell. However, I believe the longer term trend of the U.S. stock market may likely still be up.

Last week WTI crude oil prices came down from 105 levels. August futures contracts (CLQ4) traded as low as 103.64 on Friday (7/4). The lack of new major incidents in the Middle East may possibly have contributed to the slump of the oil prices recently. I think CLQ4 may likely fluctuate between 100 and 108 in the near term.

Please keep in mind that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing. This matter is intended as a solicitation to invest in Futures and Managed Futures.

Have a great trading week!

Contact me at cmiaoweb[@]chesapeakeinvestment.com
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing.


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What to watch in the market this week (6/30/2014)

By Chuck Miao

The volatility in the market climbed a little last week. On Wednesday (6/25) U.S. Department of Commerce released third revision of the first quarter GDP. It was down 2.9% on an annualized basis, much worse than previously expected. Strangely enough, S&P 500 Index (SPX) started pulling back after it made another record high at 1968.17 the day before (6/24). SPX fluctuated between 1940 and 1960 over the rest of the week.

According to the Briefing.com, for the whole week (6/23 – 6/27), S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 0.1%; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 0.6%; and Nasdaq Composite Index was up 0.7%.

Technically, S&P 500 Index tested its 20-day moving average line near 1940 level and held last week. I think its first level of support between 1930 and 1940 may seem to be fairly solid at this point. If there is any further pullback in the near future, its 50-day moving average line near 1920 may possibly provide even stronger support. I think the near term direction for SPX may potentially still be up. However the volatility index may still hover at these low levels near the low teens in the near term.

Last week WTI crude oil prices still stayed above 105 levels. However, as there weren’t any new significant events coming out of Iraq, August futures contracts (CLQ4) seemed to have made a near term top between 107 and 108 levels. I think it may likely break down the important 105 levels if the Middle East situation won’t escalate in the near term. However, I think it may probably still stay above $100 per barrel during the summer time.

Last week August gold futures contracts (GCQ4) stayed near 1320 levels. I believe the 1280 to 1300 area may possibly provide some strong support in the near term. 1350 area may likely provide some near term resistance.

This Friday is the July 4th holiday. U.S. Market will be closed on Friday. The holiday spirit from the market participants may potentially keep pushing the U.S. stock market to a higher ground this week.

Please keep in mind that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing. This matter is intended as a solicitation to invest in Futures and Managed Futures.

Have a great trading week and Happy July 4th!

Contact me at cmiaoweb[@]chesapeakeinvestment.com

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing.


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What to watch in the market this week (6/23/2014)

By Chuck Miao

Investors got what they wanted to hear from the Fed last week. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday (6/18) left the interest rate unchanged and reduced bond buying by another $10 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal report.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped towards 1960 levels from 1940 level after the news on Wednesday (6/18).
According to the Briefing.com, for the whole week (6/16 – 6/20), S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.4%; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 1.0%; and Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.3%.

Technically, S&P 500 Index kept making new highs over the last several weeks. This Monday (6/23) it made another new historical high at 1963.91. I think its 20-day moving average near 1930 to 1940 levels may provide some initial support if there is any pullback. However, much stronger support may show up near its 50-day moving average line near 1900 levels. I believe the near term direction for SPX may probably still point higher. The upcoming summer rally may potentially bring SPX close to 2000 levels. The volatility index (VIX) kept moving lower and reached 10.34 on Friday morning (6/20) before it reversed itself. I think the VIX may possibly stay low for quite some time in the near future as I don’t see big crisis in the making. However as people were used to the higher volatility environment over the last several years, this new normal environment may seem to be “abnormal” to many investors and this indeed may likely pose some new challenges to them since many of them may feel difficult to stay invested in the market while it keeps moving higher.

Last week WTI crude oil prices stayed above 105 levels. July futures contracts (CLN4) may fluctuate between 105 and 108 levels in the near term. I think we may see it run up towards 110 levels if the situation in Middle East escalates. However we may potentially see the oil price coming down to below 105 levels once the Middle East turmoil calms down somewhat.

Last week August gold futures contracts (GCQ4) broke the 1280 resistance levels and went to 1320 levels. The near term momentum may probably push it towards 1350 levels soon.

Please keep in mind that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing. This matter is intended as a solicitation to invest in Futures and Managed Futures.

Have a great trading week!

Contact me at cmiaoweb[@]chesapeakeinvestment.com

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing.


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http://chesapeakeinvestment.com/brokercorner.php?p=3759&cat=14

 

What to watch in the market this week (6/16/2014)

By Chuck Miao

After three consecutive weekly gains, investors in the U.S. markets finally might have got some excuses to take some chips off the table last week after the news broke out that militants in Iraq overpowered some governmental forces and took over some cities there, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. On Monday (6/9), S&P 500 Index (SPX) made another historical high at 1955.55, but came down and closed at 1936.16 on Friday (6/13) after the news. It was the first down week in a month.

According to the Briefing.com, for the whole week (6/9 – 6/13), S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 0.7%; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 0.9%; and Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.2%.

Technically, last week’s pullback for SPX tested its 20-day moving average line near 1920 level. I think there may probably be some strong supports at the 1920 to 1930 levels in the near term. However if this support area fails to hold, the next support area may likely come in near its 50-day moving average line near 1890 to 1900 levels. I think investors may possibly wait for the FOMC meeting this Wednesday (6/18) before they may potentially place some big bets. If the Fed won’t come out with some negative surprises, I think the market may continue moving higher towards the end of the week, when June stock and index options as well as June index futures will expire this Friday (6/20). I think we may probably see some volatile movements in the market towards the end of the week.

Last week WTI crude oil prices also broke the 105 level and traded as high as 107.68 for the July futures contracts (CLN4), possibly due to the Iraqi situations as well. I think we may likely see the oil price stay at these elevated levels in the near term. However we may potentially see the oil price coming down to below 105 levels once the Middle East turmoil calms down somewhat.

Last week June gold futures contracts (GCM4) came back above the 1250 levels possibly due to the same reason from the Middle East. I think GCM4 may likely fluctuate between 1230 and 1300 levels in the near term.

Please keep in mind that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing. This matter is intended as a solicitation to invest in Futures and Managed Futures.

Have a great trading week!

Contact me at cmiaoweb[@]chesapeakeinvestment.com

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing.


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What to watch in the market this week (6/9/2014)

By Chuck Miao

Market got what it expected from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week when ECB officers announced that they would cut interest rate to negative for the first time in history. On Friday (6/6) U.S. Department of Labor reported that 217,000 nonfarm payrolls jobs were created for the month of May. U.S. equity markets were boosted by the positive news; S&P 500 Index (SPX) broke through 1930 resistance and made another record closing at 1949.44 by Friday (6/6).

According to the Briefing.com, for the whole week (6/2 – 6/6), S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.3%; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 1.2% and Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.9%.

Technically, I think after last week’s rally, SPX may possibly be in a somewhat overbought condition in the near term. Also the volatility index (VIX) kept moving lower and broke down 11 level last week. With the SPX in its all-time high levels, it may be hard to predict how high SPX may probably go from here. In my opinion, 1920 to 1930 area may potentially become the first level of support for SPX if there is pullback in the market; its 20-day moving average line near 1900 level may likely pose some strong support in the near term.

Last week WTI crude oil price consolidated between 101 and 104 range. I think July WTI crude oil futures contracts (CLN4) may possibly stay within the 100 to 105 trading range in the near term.

Last week June gold futures contracts (GCM4) tried to build a base between 1230 to 1240 levels. I think it may be crucial for gold to hold this support area. Otherwise it may probably fall below 1200 levels.

This week there may not have many economic data to be released. However next week there will be FOMC rate decision on Wednesday (6/18) and June monthly options will expire on Friday (6/20). The market volatility may likely pick up next week.

Please keep in mind that trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing. This matter is intended as a solicitation to invest in Futures and Managed Futures.

Have a great trading week!

Contact me at cmiaoweb[@]chesapeakeinvestment.com

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. There are no guarantees of profit no matter who is managing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is unlimited risk of loss in selling options. An investor must read and understand the commodity trading advisor’s current disclosure document before investing.


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http://chesapeakeinvestment.com/brokercorner.php?p=3750&cat=14

 
TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS UNLIMITED RISK OF LOSS IN SELLING OPTIONS. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR'S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING.